#6 Blue Devils
Conference: ACC
2006-07: 22-11, 8-8, 6th (t)
2006-07 postseason: NCAA
Coach Mike Krzyzewski returns six players who started at least ten games last
year for Duke. Going 8-8 is certainly a down year in Durham, but it will be
better this year. There were no scholarship seniors on the team last year and
there is just one this year. This year’s Duke team may be young, but last
year’s was extremely young and inexperienced. With everybody but one impact
player back, inexperience is no longer a problem and adding in a trio of highly
touted freshmen to boost the lackluster offense will go a long way. The Blue
Devils will be back to the Sweet Sixteen after VCU busted their streak of nine
in a row last March.
Who’s Out:
Besides walk-on Joe Paglicua, who played in just three games, Josh McRoberts
is the only loss suffered by the Blue Devils. But that is a big loss. McRoberts
averaged 13.0 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks before bolting early for the
NBA. His absence leaves a huge, huge gap up front and that will be the Achilles
heel for Duke all year long.
Who’s In:
One would think the recruiting class would address the frontcourt concern, but
no. Still this is a great class of wings who will add even more athleticism
to the team. The best of the bunch is small forward Kyle Singler. The best asset
the team will get out of Singler this year is his size. At 6-8 Singler can grab
some boards from the wing. He lacks the strength to do so, but he could end
up starting at the power forward spot due to a massive talent logjam at the
shooting guard and small forward spots. Singler is known for his smart play
and terrific shooting ability and he will show off those talents no matter where
he ends up playing this season. Streaky shooting small forward Taylor King brings
another big guard to the lineup. He is not a great athlete, but at 6-6 can cause
problems for smaller opponents trying to defend him. Nolan Smith will be the
sharp shooting guard and shutdown defender of the future. For now he will play
that role off the bench.
Who to Watch:
The backcourt starts with point guard Greg Paulus. He had a great shooting season
as a sophomore, but the turnover numbers were way too high. Unlike incoming
freshman Smith, Paulus will not beat many defenders off the dribble, but as
long as he can keep the turnovers down as an upperclassman, Duke will be in
good hands. Jon Scheyer ended up to be a lot like Paulus. He is a good shooter,
although he did not have that great of a season from long range compared to
Paulus, shooting just 36.5 percent. Scheyer can run the show, but his assist-to-turnover
ratio was even worse than Paulus’. Both will do plenty of scoring and
win plenty of games for the Blue Devils, but they will have to keep the turnovers
down to win the big games consistently. The athleticism in the backcourt belongs
to Gerald Henderson. The 6-4 swingman had a decent campaign averaging 6.8 points
per game as a freshman, but that is just the beginning of his potential. The
star of the team is DeMarcus Nelson who led the team with 14.1 points per game
and added 5.4 rebounds. Ideally, the 6-4 Nelson would be starting at the three
spot, but with Paulus and Scheyer returning as starters and Henderson expected
to have a breakout season, Nelson could see a lot of time at the four spot.
On the offensive end, that is not a big deal, but it will be a problem in certain
situations for the 200 pound Nelson to defend much bigger opponents. However,
Coach Krzyzewski will get the proper players on the floor in any given situation
and the size concerns of the Blue Devils will not be exploited too much.
Final Projection:
It is not just the power forward spot that needs to be filled, but the team
needs a center as well. The 6-8 Lance Thomas started 18 games next to McRoberts
last season and is the early favorite to take over the full-time starting gig.
He is a good rebounder and defender, but Duke needs him to develop into a consistent
low post scorer. At 7-1 and 260 pounds, Brian Zoubek would fit in nicely if
he can emerge as a solid scorer after averaging just 7.3 minutes per contest
last year. David McClure is not a big time scorer, but the 6-6 forward is a
tough, hard-nosed player who will do the dirty work. Of course he is not big
enough to play the five spot, but he will earn plenty of quality minutes at
both forward positions.
Projected Post-season Tournament: NCAA
Current Record: 8-0
NC Central W 121-56
New Mexico St W 86-61
Princeton W 83-61
at Illinois W 79-66
#13 Marquette W 77-73
E Kentucky W 78-43
#20 Wisconsin W 82-58
at Davidson W 79-73
Starting Five:
Greg Paulus, Junior, 6-1 Guard, 9.0 ppg
Gerald Henderson, Sophomore, 6-4 Guard, 13.8 ppg
DeMarcus Nelson, Senior, 6-4 Guard, 11.9 ppg
Kyle Singler, Freshman, 6-8 Forward, 14.1 ppg
Lance Thomas, Sophomore, 6-8 Forward, 5.8 ppg